It's getting to the stage where I'm so fed up of non-dom whinging, I might leave the country myself.
Mike Truman has, as ever, an excellent piece on the subject in Taxation this week. In it he talks about the constant moaning of the super-rich about their tax rates, and concludes with the memorable line:
Some non-domiciles have expressed the fear that this may just be the start of
a process which will lead to a removal of all their tax privileges; all I can
say is that I hope their fears are realised.
Hear, hear.
I wanted to talk about something slightly different. Another survey saying how many are going to go. And before anyone says anything, I know that we've been as responsible for reporting 'fears' about non-doms leaving as anyone: the questions raised apply to all of us.
CFA UK, a group of city investment professionals, are saying that 37% of non-domiciles plan to leave the UK under the planned changes.
Which sounds a lot. But you get to the first par of the press release and find out this includes both people who will leave immediately and those who will leave 'before they achieve seven years residency'.
The second group is such a worthless sample: we know many non-doms will leave before seven years residency. The whole point of being a non-dom is your home is elsewhere and you plan to return to it in due course, mostly before seven years are up.
So we're reduced to a figure of just 18% who say they will leave within a year (and I had to ask for this breakdown - it didn't appear to be in the original release).
So how big is the survey? Well - the e-mailed survey was sent to 5,000 people! Great!
But, erm, only 600 replied. Not too bad, but a bit weak.
Oh, and only half of those claim non-dom status.
So we're left with a survey telling us, effectively, that 18% of 300 people might leave within a year. That's, erm, 54 people.
This isn't the first survey to use dubious statistics to present a distorted picture, but it does raise some fairly fundamental questions about the lobbying currently going on.
Tax campaigners and others arguing against corporate or personal tax avoidance are frequently vilified, udually in whispered tones, about the lack of rigour to their figures, or for their lack of understanding of the issues behind the numbers.
Can someone explain why this is different, and why it is acceptable to try and influence public debate with dodgy statistics about the number of non-doms about to leave the country? I haven't got a good answer myself.
Of course, the real answer to the question 'how many non-doms will leave?' is, in fact, all of them. The whole point is that their home is elsewhere and they will at some point leave.
For the time being they're still over here and making overly large amounts of noise. They could go to Monaco, Switzerland or countless other places.
Can anyone suggest a good place that I could go to to escape the tax whinging of the super rich?
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